According to data gathered earlier this month, bitcoin hodlers are on the rise. BTC is gaining while speculators are on a steady decline in a run that most stakeholders believe is “just beginning.”
Grayscale issued a “valuing bitcoin” report that suggested that the Hodler vs. Speculator Index (HSI) is showing a highly bullish divergence. Which is quite similar to how bitcoin behaved in early 2016.
According to industry experts, HSI usually measures Bitcoin activity in wallets. The experts uses the matrix’s results to explain how network participants are using their BTC either as a store-of-value or as a trading tool.
Bitcoin Speculators vs Hodlers
The report classified “hodler coins” as coins that have not moved in the last one to three years. Meanwhile “speculator coins” are coins that have moved at one point from one wallet to another in the last 90 days.
When compared the results of the data, it noted that hodler coins were on the rise and speculator coins were on the decline.
Capriole’s founder, Charles Edwards, tweeted “percent of Bitcoin’ Holders’ peaking and ‘Speculators’ bottoming (is) another great indicator that the Bull run is just beginning.”
When Phil Bonello was asked for his opinion about the above chart, he said “the chart looks potentially promising for Bitcoin, as there are a growing number of Hodlers relative to a small number of Speculators in the market.” In turns, re-echoed the earlier notion shared by Charles Edwards that Bitcoin hodlers were on the rise.
Bitcoin’s 2018 all-time-high versus 2020
In an earlier report, Cointelegraph had reported that analysts said the current state of Bitcoin is similar to that of 2016. That’s 18 months before Bitcoin rates reached an all-time high of $20,000.
Meanwhile, the Grayscale report had given further insight into the psychology of Bitcoin investors in 2020. That comes as most had developed a desire to keep Bitcoin as an investment. They’re either store-of-value, not selling it or trading it even when the price as went as high as $12,000 in the current year.
Bonello also noted that this chart shows that Bitcoin ownership has never been this high for more than a year. In his words “the metric indicates a strong conviction in Bitcoin by its current investor base. While this is a supply-side metric. It also demonstrates the demand for Bitcoin’s use case as a store of value. Rather than trading, and it appears investors are interested in holding Bitcoin despite its volatility.”
Faith Obafemim tech lawyer, digital content consultant, blockchain & crypto researcher, emerging tech tech writer. She is currently doing research on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on the blockchain and recommending Kleros as a dispute resolution layer.